The generational and economic theory in the excel workbooks are based on the work of the following people:
  Strauss & Howe , HS Dent , Charles P Kindleberger , Gene Smiley and Robert S. McElvaine.  The bulk of my research comes from the work of Strauss & Howe.

•  Don't know where to start? Start here: Color Code Key

•  Books by Strauss & Howe: The Fourth Turning, Generations, Gen-X (13th Gen), Millennials Rising

•  Or go to Strauss & Howe's web page to see all their writing in one place.

•  Strauss & Howe's Web Sites: Life Course Associates, The Fourth Turning

• Books by Strauss and Howe

Web Page Navigation Area:

 My short writings on Generations & Turnings

 Generations

  Listed in order of which they should be read

 The 4 Generational Archetypes

 Turnings/Seasons

  Listed in order of which they should be read

 Misc

  Books by Strauss and Howe 

The Fourth Turning

Generations : The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069

  13th Gen : Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail?

Millennials Rising : The Next Great Generation

 Generational Theory

William Strauss and Neil Howe have compiled the most important piece of work American’s need too break the negative cycles that truly hold this country back from the next collective threshold.

Their in-depth look into each of the eighteen generations in America’s history is not only a masterpiece in of itself, it’s also an enormous learning tool. Furthermore, their work into the cycles that these generational archetypes create, called Turnings, is a big-picture view of our Nation’s entire history painted ingeniously. What more could any society ask for than to have this work put in front of them? It answers so many questions.

Strauss & Howe have invited others to take this work to the next level. There is much more research that needs to be done. Thankfully, Bill and Neil have created a mighty foundation. My hope is, somewhere in this great country of ours, someone is thinking about funding such an endeavor.

Once I discovered Generational Theory, I was able to truly step back in time and into the shoes of many of our historical figures. Generational Theory links all of us together. It weaves a basic strand back in time that connects us with similarities that are very simple to understand.

  It wasn’t just Generational Theory itself that accomplished this. It was the two men that I came to know as the greatest generational writers of our era. 

Strauss & Howe grouped everyone into 18 generations and 4 archetypes. The archetypes are born in order, Hero, Artist, Idealist, Nomad, and  the 18 generations stretch back to the first settlers in America. Nobody had done this kind of work until William Strauss and Neil Howe.

They paint a big picture of American history that is easy to understand and gives explanations for events that make sense.

Their Generational Theory is a framework that you can use to place dates and people with simplicity. Furthermore you will become connected to figures in the past that you never knew possible. When you become familiar with the four archetypes, you suddenly find that you have much in common with some of the greatest people of our past. This is due to the fact that you are one of these archetypes and you share common behavioral patterns with many people from out past.

 The spreadsheets on this page are a way for you to see the theory in pictures. I have taken the archetypes and other terms that Strauss and Howe have written about and color-coded them. I have taken the eras they defined and put them in chronological order with color-codes also, plus a lot more.

Some of these spreadsheets may seem incomplete. But that's because of the enormity of the work involved in producing them. The whole idea was to give people a framework to understand the theory and let them take it from there. I'm  just giving you a head start. 

So download a spreadsheet and jump into the rich world of Generational Theory. I guarantee that you will have a greater understanding of yourself and your past when you are done.

 Excel Workbooks

All workbooks can be downloaded for free.  Click on the link to the workbook you would like to download and the file will automatically begin downloading. After the file has completed downloading, a window should appear  asking you where you'd like to save the file. Pick a location and click save. You can then open the file at your convenience from MS Excel. 

Files below are listed in following example:

"File Name" (Size)

Description of what is contained in the workbook 

    Excel Workbooks

  "Index_4thT_number_2.1" (.xls 340KB) 

• 2.1 was completed by hand.

• 2.1 has color coding that allows for fast identification of a particular generation or era.  

  "Index 4th T word 3.1.doc" (640KB) (updated 12/27/2005)

• This is a newer index. You can view it in word or excel. 

• Thanks to Neil Howe for lending me the electronic version of " The Fourth Turning". 

• Because I had access to the electronic version, I was able to create a concordance file, then, create an index to the book. 

• 5800+ entries

"Generations: Boom v. GenX" (.xls 241KB)

Spreadsheet contains the following information on:

Boomers

• Mother giving birth by year, 1957-1981

• Mother birth year 1943-1960

• Mother's age

• Births by waves

• Birth year projected by age, by year, into the future to the age of 65

• Dominant parental archetype for each birth year, by number and percent, 1957-1981

• Wave traits 

• Wave name

Generation-X

• Mother giving birth by year 1976-1981

• Mother birth year 1961-1967

• Births by year

• Births by waves

• Birth year projected by age, by year, into the future to the age of 65

• Dominant parental archetype for each birth year, by number and percent, 1961-1981

• Wave traits

• Wave name

Silents

• Mothers giving birth by year, 1941-1981

• Mother birth year 1925-1942

GIs

• Mother giving birth by year, 1961-1981

• Mother birth year 1903-1924
  

"Generations: General Data" (.xls 2.1MG)

• If you want to know about Strauss and Howe's work this is where to start here

 "Generations and Turnings" (.xls 488KB)

• Strauss & Howe's  Turing's theory in colors. 

"Generations: Economy" (.xls 2.1MG) 

• Generations, economic cycles, banking & money  crisis, and trading exchange history

• Financial Panics: 1630-2000

• Generations: Peak spending years, Puritan's through the Millennials (1599-2046)

• Trading Exchanges: 1791-2000 
  
   

  Social Movements and Secular Crisis

I offer some insight into the world of social behavior as viewed through the works of a Yale and Harvard grad., Neil Howe[i] and William Strauss[ii].

I’ve used their work for years for everything from marketing to predicting the markets to assisting in understanding the U.S. from a sociological view. 

I offer this writing in hope that it will give you some peace while chaos swirls amongst us. At the end of the article you’ll find a smattering of web sites if you’d like to click around for some more information or perhaps buy one of Strauss and Howe’s books.  

Social Movements and Secular Crisis

Strauss and Howe write that there are two types of social movements, ‘Secular crisis’[iii] and ‘Spiritual awakenings’ [iv]. We are in a secular crisis now and  that is the focus of this paper. Secular crisis is defined as, “…when society focuses on reordering the outer world of institutions and public behavior”.[v] Pertaining to the frequency of social movements, “Social movements do not arrive at random. For example, a secular crisis and a spiritual awakening never occur back to back. Nor does half a century ever pass without a social movement of either type. Instead, social movements arrive on a rather regular schedule.”[vi]

A social movement lasts about a decade. They arrive in time intervals roughly separated by two phases of life (approximately 40 to 45 years), and they alternate in type between secular and social. [vii] (For further reading of the timing of social movements in non-traditional societies like the U.S., read ‘Appendix A’, in “Generations”.)

What makes 2003 so interesting is that we are coming to the end of the birthing of the civic-minded Millennials (b.1981-2003) and the beginning of the birth of a new generation of ‘Adapitives’. The new generation is very similar to the ‘Silent’ generation, b. 1925-1942, the ‘Progressive’ generation, b. 1843-1859, the ‘Compromise’ generation, b. 1767-1791 and the earliest ‘Adaptive’ generation in U.S. history, the ‘Enlightenment’ generation, b. 1648-1673. [viii]

This year, 2003, is of massive social transition.

To understand why, we must first look at the five generational archetypes alive today and what role they play.

In 2003, there are five generations alive. The Millennials, b. 1982-2003, the 13ers (Gen-X), b. 1961-1980 [ix], The Baby Boom, b. 1943-1960, the Silent, b. 1925-1942 the G.I., b. 1901-1924 and finally the Lost, b. 1883-1900, (there were 68,000 people alive over the age of 100 in the 2000 census). [x]

Let’s look at the collective ages of the generations alive today.

Millennials – 0 to 20 (Youth)

Gen-x – 21 to 42 (Rising)

Boomers – 43 to 60 (Midlife)

Silent – 61 to 78 (Elder)

GI – 79 to 101

Lost – 102 to eldest living.

Let’s look at the definitions or the descriptors of the each of the five generations. These definitions are in very broad terms. They try to define the role each generation’s plays. Especially in the coming crisis.

Millennials – Civic, Dominant. Central role is Dependence (growing, learning, accepting, protection and nurture, avoiding, harm, acquiring, values).

Gen-x – Reactive, Recessive. Central role is Activity (working, starting families, and livelihoods, serving institutions, testing values).

Boomers – Idealist Dominant. Central role is Leadership (parenting, teaching, directing institutions, using values).

Silent – Adaptive, Recessive. Central role is Stewardship (supervising, mentoring, channeling endowments, passing on values.

GI – Civic, Dominant. (Strauss and Howe do not elaborate on the ages reached after 87.)

Lost – Reactive, Recessive. (Strauss and Howe do not elaborate on the ages reached after 87.)

Now lets take a look at some other eras in American history that mirror the time we are in at this moment, in 2003. Strauss and Howe define these eras as generational constellations. 1924, 1855, 1766 and 1664.[xi]

(For further reading on the Civil War era check the footnote. That era interrupted an entire generation. [xii])

“At all four of these moments, Americans perceived their social life to be fragmenting into centrifugal and uncontrollable wildness.” [xiii]

The above statement refers to the years, 1924, 1855, 1766,1664 and now, 2003. That quote was written in 1990. I find it amazingly accurate pertaining to the mood of the nation at this precise moment in time. Furthermore, “Looking up, 13ers will sense among the older generation an utter impracticality, an inability to see the world for what it really is.” [xiv]

As a 13er, I can state unequivocally, that statement is true. 13er’s love reality. This is one reason reality shows are so big. There core viewer is the 13er’s (Gen-X). (To read more about Gen-X, see page 313 in Generations. It’s very accurate)

This brings us to 2003.

Strauss and Howe wrote an article about the coming crisis that can be read here, http://www.lcourse.com/media/commentary/011029.html . It was written about the events of September 11^th, 2001. However, I do not believe that was the crisis that Strauss and Howe were predicting in the book Generations. In Generations, they state that the crisis should take place somewhere closer to 2020.

Their research shows, with great accuracy, that these things can be predicted. I think this last year has told us that although 9/11 was tragic and changed ten’s of thousands of people’s lives; it was not similar to the past crisis’ that occurred at a secular crisis. (Please excuse the callous way this is written. I mean no disrespect to those directly affected by 9/11.) 

If you read the web page I pasted in above, you will see that things are not panning out the way ‘society is supposed to behave’ during a secular crisis. As we were all gung ho to kick the Taliban’s butt after 9-11, the mood has decisively changed as Iraq entered the picture. We are not coalescing like we should. This tells me that, unfortunately, 9/11 was not the worst to come.

Moreover, when I read the newspapers from 1923-24, I see similar things in society that are taking place today. Issues like immigration (congress practically closed the borders), and self-help (Carnegie and Peale) were at the forefront of society.  Society demanded we take away civil liberties, like booze. Today we are taking away those liberties via the ‘Patriot Act’, etc. There were scandals on Wall Street that took place in 1921-22. Over the last three years we have also seen our stock market cycle mirror 1920, 21 and 22. The S&P rubber & tire index fell about 70% and the S&P automobile index fell 70% (their NASDAQ). General Motors fell 75% (our Microsoft, Cisco and Oracle) . (For more on these statistics, visit www.hsdent.com )

“As America moves into the ensuing crisis era, long-deferred secular problems can be expected to reemerge with fearsome immediacy.” [xv]

Strauss and Howe are speaking of the beginning of or the dawn of, the crisis era. That’s now. This era is slated to last until 2025.

“Moving further ahead, perhaps halfway into the crisis era, history suggests the mood will calm somewhat.” [xvi]

This speaks of the coming bull market. As we saw in 1924-1929. Things mellowed and everything calmed down. Then it hit the fan, didn’t it.

The point being, nuclear annihilation isn’t in America’s cards. Nor is a mass germ terrorist attack. Can I state this as absolute? Of course not. I have trouble predicting where the Bonds are going in the next five minutes. However I do not stop trying to predict. It is in all of our nature. We are traders and traders try to predict the future everyday.

Strauss and Howe predict the coming crisis lasting from 2013 to 2024 in one case and in another they predict it from 2020 to 2029 saying that in either case, the early 20’s will be tough. [xvii]

There’s so much I left out. Trying to write a concise, short paper on a book and many web sites is daunting. However, I think I’ve stated the point/theory. The catastrophe is far off. Regardless of President Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, Colin Powell, Osama Bin Laden, Saddam Hussein, Pakistan, India, North Korea or ‘insert-a-name that you feel is a threat’. 

Further Reading

http://www.hsdent.com/

http://www.fourthturning.com/html/about_william_strauss.html

http://www.fourthturning.com/html/about_neil_howe.html

http://www.fourthturning.com

 Generation X and War

[Author’s note: This article was a manifestation of a reply I gave someone who emailed me asking questions about Generation X, wars, and Turnings theory.]

3T wars aren't as 'final' as 4T wars. The wars in the current 3T are typical of 3T history. There's no doubt that the amount of casualties compared to other 3T wars are laughable (this is a good thing). However, societies reactions to the wars were very similar. I think societies reaction to the war is what's important because it is the basis of S&H theory.

War itself may have changed. We are fighting at a distance compared to hand to hand combat. You only need to read the defense industry magazine Jane to understand just how different wars are fought now. However, the question begs to be answered, is this the way we will fight in 4Ts, 1Ts, or 2Ts, in the future? 

My forecast for the coming 4thT is as follows: If we get involved in a war, it will be fought like other 4T wars. That is, with finality. The casualties of US soldiers will mirror those of other 4T wars. The "new" way of fighting (current 3T wars) will vanish for now, but will return. Why will the casualties mirror 4Ts of the past?

American societies collective behavior hasn’t changed on a linear time line. As where technology has grown linearly, our behavior has not. To address the questions, What is the effect of this on Generation X? and What are some likely future effects? I must address the following issue:  As usual, society is overlooking one very important issue. That issue is the countless amounts of data on ‘gulf war syndrome 1991’ and ‘gulf war syndrome 2003 (GWS).

There's nothing about GWS reported in the main stream yet the affects from both wars are extremely devastating. Take a look at some of the data out there on this subject. I won’t even tell you where to look, so you don’t think I’m pushing you to a certain point of view. I will say this though; one great source for information is the source that has the most to lose—the DoD. You will be shocked. I guarantee.

 It’s very hard for me to sidestep the gulf war syndrome, when addressing “What is the effect of this on Generation X?” It’s so typical of society to not give this any attention. Society pretends that it doesn’t exist. If this were a hero generation the story would be different.

 Looking to the past, society behaved exactly this way during the last 3T war, when the great plague (TGP) was sweeping the world. Society and the mainstream press put on a happy face and pretended nothing was happening; yet the Lost generation was ravaged by this plague. The Lost generation's collective age was exactly the age hit hardest by the disease. But----sshhh. Don’t say anything, it really doesn’t exist.

 There are many differences between GWS and TGP. That’s obvious. However, I’m speaking directly to one issue and that’s societies response during a 3T. 

 Therefore, the effect on GenX, regarding the low casualty rate in modern 3T wars, will be typical of GenX of yore. They will have done what society asked of them, which is to serve their country. They will have given it their all and been told how lucky they were because it’s a different era of fighting wars. Low casualties and all.

 They will be told what they’ve been told their whole collective life, “You’re lucky to be here, and if anything goes wrong, it’s your fault.” 

 The collective response of GenX will be typical GenX. They will get nothing for their effort, they’ll fade into the woodwork, and history will write them into oblivion.

-jim goulding

Cuspers

[Author’s note: This article was a manifestation of a reply I gave someone who emailed me asking questions about cuspers.]

A cusper is a person born near a generational boundary. For example, the GI and the Silent generation’s boundary is 1924, 25. The GIs stopped being born in 1924 and the Silent began being born in 1925. If a person was born in, say, 1923, 24, 25, or 26 could they be members of the other generation? Sure they could. They were born on the fence. They are cuspers.

Many people have characteristics from both generations. What has been found with cuspers is that they usually identify with one generation or the other. To identify which generation you belong to you can ask questions. The questions would pertain to your generation as a whole. More specifically, to your wave.

A generation encounters the same national events, moods, and trends. A generation maintains a specific age location in history, throughout their lives. They basically experience things from the same age location their entire lives. History affects people differently according to their specific age location. Common age location is what gives a cohort its biography and lifestyle.

Imagine the events of 9-11 seen through the eyes of an 18-year-old Millennial, 30-year-old Xer, 50-year-old Boomer, 65-year-old Silent and a 85-year old GI.

The Millennial thinks, “I hope I don’t get drafted. But if I do, I hope my friends are with me. If they’re with me we can do this together.”

The Xer thinks, “See. We’ve been telling the boomers to wake up and focus their attention to the outer world and stop looking inward. We told you the government was a bunch of idiots, but you wouldn’t listen because you were all to busy putting us in jail for the crimes you committed, while society looked on, when you were our age. You were all to busy telling us that we must live by your values and values are what makes the human being, nothing else.

"You guys are retarded!"

A Boomer thinks, “We must talk about why everyone ‘suddenly’ hates us. Perhaps we should change our values. We need to meditate on this for a while and come to some sort of decision.” While the other half of the boomers are thinking, “These people truly do not know how to worship a God correctly, let’s teach them how, by invading their country. It’s the moral, righteous thing to do.”

The Silent think, “Oh these poor poor kids. These poor families and what about these Muslims? We need to get the UN in on this and form some committees to talk this out. We must listen to every side of the story and get some research done to recommend some ‘fair’ solutions that will help and please everyone. There’s still so much work to be done, we aren’t going anywhere.”

The GI thinks, “Now they’ll know what patriotism is all about. The ungrateful little bastards got what was a comin’ to ‘em. But, now they’ll now what it’s like to be a team and be united as one. We’ll show those towel-heads what this effin’ country is made of! Nuke ‘em all!”

Pertaining to generational waves, look at this Example:

Boomers

1^st wave b.1943-1947, the “Hello babies, or Victory babies”

2^nd wave b.1948-1953, the “Vietnam babies”

3^rd wave b.1954-1960, the “Pro-Lifer babies”

Each wave relates to the hippy era, inward soul searching, values, mothers at home, great medical care as children, and extremely strong ties to their mothers. They relate to Vietnam, Kent State, and New ageism, abortion whether you’re pro-life or pro-choice. These are just some of the things.

Waves relate to different things also. The first wave is very new ageist, conscious revolutionaries, eats right, and draft dodgers. The second wave served the most in Nam and are probably the truest type of Boomer for many reasons that I won’t get into now. The third wavers are the fire and brimstone preachers, Christian movement, evangelical, religious types, etc. Their born-again, say mealtime grace, conversionists, and constantly fight about the old argument, science v religion.

Furthermore, the 1^st wavers and the 3^rd wavers are constantly at each others throats and have caused havoc on society as each tries to push it’s values on society.

What’s most telling about the difference between the first wave boomers and last wave boomers is who parented them.

I just completed a study of exactly what mother gave birth to what boomer or Xer. (See excel worksheet Generations: Boom v. GenX (Excel File))

The GI’s parented the first wave and the Silents parented the last wave. The bipolarality between the two waves makes sense when you read that last sentence.

One of the questions asked by the person who emailed me was, do you relate to the boomers because you’re a cusper?

No. I’m most definitely Generation-X. I relate to everything Gen-X. The 1961-1964 first wave Xers (the Atari wave) are a very distinct cohort. From early childhood test scores to adult arrest records. They are amazing to look at. The similarities of this wave throughout their collective lives are astounding. Furthermore, you’ll find that 90% of people interviewed, who were born 1961-1964 say they are Generation-X, not Boomers. The boundaries on some generations are clear-cut and after Strauss and Howe researched the Boom and Gen-X, it was very apparent that the two generations were very clear-cut. The 1942-43 Silent-Boomer boundary is also very clear as was 1981-1982, Gen-X/Mill.

(I won’t go into all the reason’s here.) And, there are other generational boundaries that are grey.

Someone once stated to me, “I also thought it unusual to see dominant and non-dominant alternate.” [They were commenting on the archetypes alternating between dominant and non-dominant.]

Nothing fascinates me more than this attribute. Once you think about the dynamics of it, it’s easier to understand society. Especially when you begin to identify the opposite attributes of dominant and sub-dominant generations. For instance, the two dominant generations, Prophet (Boomer) and Hero (GI/Millennials) are similar in that they share the dominant trait, however, the Hero generation concentrates on the ‘outer’ matters of life while the Prophet generations looks at the ‘inner’ matters, of life. The Hero generation is connected to their fathers, while the Prophet is connected to their mothers.

Another of the questions asked by the person who emailed me was, “Life doesn't seem that perfect - is it?” [They were commenting on generational theory, and how it wraps everything in nice little packages.]

Generational theory is very much a macro science. It assists me in understanding why this society is such a mess. It defines and wraps a nice little sane bow around the chaos. It also helps me identify societal cycles, which in turn helps me identify where the stock market is going. [That’s how I found generational theory; through stock market research.] It puts a nice framework around our history, as a nation and it makes history a heck of a lot more interesting, also.

Lastly, it really allowed me understand how, why, and who parented me (this is strictly speaking from a sociological point of view). Why my Mom and Dad chose the child-rearing methods they chose. What society was doing at the time I was growing up and how that influenced their decisions. It brought me a clear understanding of how I was parented and I came to understand my Mom and Dad a lot better.

Furthermore, it sent my respect for both of them through the roof. I truly get a sense of what it was like to walk in their shoes. Not easy to do thirty or forty years after the fact. Generational theory allowed me to step back in time and experience what they were experiencing at a very precise moment. What more could I ask for?

jim goulding

4/10/2004

Generation of Vipers

[Author’s note: This article was a posting on an Internet bulletin board.]

OMG! I found the book Generation of Vipers in a used book store this weekend.

Philip Wylie wrote the book. He was one of the highest paid writers from the era the book was first published, 1942. He was quite famous I've read. But, up until I found this book, I'd never heard of him.

The book is such a great insight into a 4th Turning. This guy takes-off on everyone! He leaves no one untouched. There's no doubt that many of his rants are way overboard. What I enjoyed though was the obvious parallels with today’s society.

It's also nice to read a book from the WWII era that talks about society from a non-war perspective.

However, I warn those who search this book out, this guy had many narrow-minded opinions.

Lastly, the book I bought had notes written by the author from 1955 spread throughout the book. The publishers had him do an update to the book before the zillionth printing.

From my understanding, he also did this two more times, in 1959 and 1962. What's cool about the notes are that we, the readers, get the perspective from a 4thT and 1st T. Quite fascinating.

jim goulding

5/03/2004

Where is society as a whole?

When stepping back the view presents itself very logically.

We are in what I call and what some others call "The fifth wave". (TFW)

This being the final wave. Once mankind advanced far enough to free up time that was otherwise spent on life sustaining duties, a new advancement emerged.

It is logical that once we are able to have these life sustaining duties completed for us that we would move on to a higher conscious. The brain is evolutionizing to a higher state.

"What's next," the brain asks? "There must be something more"?

Just as our fore-bearers asked themselves 500 years ago when the printing press was borne.

There was a collective conscious back then asking "How can we communicate to each other on a grander scale?"

As the railroads where being built in the mid 1800's they asked "How can we get together as a society quicker?"

As electricity become commonplace in the early 1900's we asked "How can we make our lives simpler?"

As computers and the internet are reaching the critical masses we see the same thing happening that happened with every other 500 year and 80 year society propelling invention cycle; More time is being freed up to reach the final wave.

The final wave is the search for a higher self. The search for true inner peace. The move to spirituality.

We are in the early stages, the infancy, of the fifth wave. We must see, as a society that materialism is not the answer.

We have finally, truly, freed up time. We have succeeded in something that people have been asking for since the late 1400's to early 1500's; more time.

However we are choosing to spend that time collecting material things and working for material things and material experiences. We think that these things will fill the black hole that resides in 99% of the population. It is only logical that we would try this first. It is a natural state of evolution that we should stop here, and think that this is the answer. We can only get to a higher state of being through first experiencing and understanding that materialism is not the answer.

The ruins we lay across the landscape of time, as we evolutionise, are many children and people with deep emotional problems. In my opinion, many of these children and people where born ahead of there time. Many of them are the true underlying leaders in the movement to a higher conscious, constantly reminding the other 99% that there must be something more... 

When a parent is working long hours to achieve the materialism of his neighbor and to be accepted by society as a whole, that's one thing. However when both parents are